Friday, September 06, 2024
Purchasing Managers' Index: Downward trend in German industry continues
+++ Declines in purchasing volumes and employment +++ Finished goods inventories shrink again +++ Purchase prices almost stable +++ Manufacturers less positive about business prospects
The downward trend in German industry has not yet been halted. This is confirmed by the August data of the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index Germany (EMI). © Anueing/iStock
(Eschborn/Hamburg, 03.09.2024) The manufacturing industry in Germany recorded a decline in new orders, purchasing volumes and employment in August 2024. New orders fell to their lowest level since November 2023. Overall, manufacturers were less positive about their business prospects than in the previous month. Managers continue to be concerned about the low level of order books and the weak economy in general. These are the findings of the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index Germany (EMI), which was compiled in collaboration with the German Association for Supply Chain Management, Procurement and Logistics (BME). In August, the EMI stood at 42.4 points, deeper in the contraction zone below 50 (after 43.2 points in July) and thus at its lowest level since March 2024.
Downward trend in prices slows down
The downward trend in prices that has been ongoing since last year appears to have almost come to a halt. According to the survey participants, costs remained virtually unchanged. Selling prices have been reduced to the lowest level since the beginning of the current reduction phase. While some companies were able to successfully negotiate lower prices with their suppliers, other companies reported higher transportation costs, especially for deliveries from Asia.
Purchasing volumes continue to shrink
Falling demand and the ongoing destocking are the reasons for the sharpest reduction in purchasing volumes for ten months. The reduction was greater than the simultaneous fall in production, as many manufacturers are trying to reduce their inventories. The biggest drop was recorded in the intermediate goods sector.
Stronger reduction in order backlogs and employees
Order backlogs fell more sharply in August than in the previous month, dropping to their lowest level since November 2023. Job cuts are also continuing in the manufacturing sector. Many companies reported that they had to cut jobs due to lower capacity utilization. This mostly affected temporary workers.
The most important results in the consumer goods sector
- Significant but slower decline in production and new orders
- Largest increase in purchase prices since November 2022
- Business outlook remains pessimistic
The most important results in the intermediate goods sector
- Sharper decline in production, new orders and employment
- Significant reduction in purchasing volume with significant decline in order backlogs
- Selling prices rise, costs increase again
The most important results in the capital goods sector
- Smallest drop in production for three months
- Major job cuts
- Purchase prices fall due to underutilized supply chains
About the EMI:
The HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index Germany (EMI) is a monthly leading indicator for forecasting economic development in Germany. The index has been published since 1996 under the auspices of the Association for Supply Chain Management, Procurement and Logistics (BME). It is based on a survey of around 500 purchasing managers and managing directors in the manufacturing industry in Germany, selected to be representative of the German economy by sector, size and region. The EMI is compiled by the US financial services provider S&P Global. It is based on the model of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).